Trade Shifts. Treasury Impacts. Strategic Opportunity.

by | Apr 19, 2025 | Articles & White Papers

As new tariff policies take shape in the U.S. and retaliation emerges abroad, companies with international operations face increasing complexity. But disruption isn’t just a risk – it’s also a moment for realignment.

Looking across three company types – Large-Cap Multinationals, Mid-Market Firms, and Startups/Small-Caps – here’s a concise view on what the next 12–18 months could look like across trade, treasury, and opportunities.

Large-Cap Multinationals

Key Risks:

  • Tariffs on critical imports and retaliatory levies on exports can create significant cost and margin pressure across supply chains.
  • Loss of de minimis exemptions and increased scrutiny at customs can slow D2C and B2B flows.
  • Currency and interest rate volatility increase uncertainty in cash forecasting and capital allocation.

Treasury Implications:

  • Strong USD may depress overseas revenue when repatriated.
  • Liquidity fragmentation across markets with capital controls (e.g., China, Brazil) complicates cash pooling.
  • Duration risk on fixed income portfolios and inter-company loans grows as rate cycles shift.

Mitigation Strategies:

  • Use dynamic FX hedging aligned to revenue timing, not just static positions.
  • Refresh cash repatriation planning – including the use of cross-border sweeping, notional pooling, or in-country financing.
  • Restructure trade flows using neutral jurisdictions to lower tariff exposure.

Opportunities to Watch:

  • FTAs in play (US–Kenya, US–UK, India–EU) may create new sourcing and sales corridors.
  • Green finance zones (Singapore, UAE, EU) offer sustainability-linked incentives for treasury and supply chain investments.
  • U.S. re-shoring support (IRA, CHIPS Act) opens the door for capital investment strategy resets.

Mid-Market Enterprises

Key Risks:

  • Exposure to tariff passthroughs from suppliers and vendors may hit product margins fast.
  • Smaller treasury teams may struggle with regulatory changes across multiple customs regimes.
  • FX and interest rate risks are often unhedged or under-managed.

Treasury Implications:

  • International subsidiaries may lack central visibility or controls, leading to idle or trapped cash.
  • Interest expense on working capital financing could rise if rates remain volatile across jurisdictions.
  • Bank fees and inefficiencies rise with poorly structured cross-border payment flows.

Mitigation Strategies:

  • Consolidate banking relationships in key regions to enable cross-border liquidity and streamline trade finance.
  • Explore automated FX and cash flow platforms that scale with growth without large overhead.
  • Consider near-shoring critical inputs (e.g., Mexico, Eastern Europe) to reduce tariff burden and improve logistics.

Opportunities to Watch:

  • USMCA and Indo-Pacific supply chains (Vietnam, Philippines, Malaysia) are expanding fast.
  • Local treasury centres or outsourcing models (via Singapore, Dubai) can help mid-market firms “punch above their weight.”
  • Structured trade and invoice finance can unlock working capital in turbulent cycles.

Startups & Small-Caps

Key Risks:

  • Rising costs from newly imposed tariffs (e.g., $200 per package from China by June) can crush unit economics.
  • Lack of FX tools or trade expertise can expose startups to unmanaged risks.
  • Cross-border expansion plans may stall due to customs or banking complexity.

Treasury Implications:

  • Cash burn models are exposed to interest rate changes (especially for venture-backed firms).
  • Limited access to multi-currency accounts and hedging tools leads to inefficiencies.
  • Investor reporting may lack transparency around international risk.

Mitigation Strategies:

  • Partner with global-first fintech platforms (e.g., Airwallex, Wise, Brex) for FX, multi-currency accounts, and global payroll.
  • Consider structuring regional entities in trade-friendly hubs to support international sales or procurement.
  • Use indirect exporting and 3PLs to keep logistics nimble and compliant.

Opportunities to Watch:

  • FTA-friendly markets like Chile, Singapore, and the UAE offer access to new customers and easier cross-border infrastructure.
  • Export credit programs (EXIM, SBA) can help early-stage firms fund international sales.
  • Global remote teams help tap talent and open new markets simultaneously.

The Takeaway: Trade risk is real – but it’s also a strategic signal. Companies that integrate trade and treasury strategy are better positioned to respond quickly, preserve margin, and unlock new growth.

Disruption isn’t just a cost. It’s a compass – and right now, it’s pointing toward resilience and reinvention.